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Author Topic: How have you done playing this game.
johno Posted: 21-Dec-03 19:07
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Is there anybody on this board who has had a degree of success playing this game, if so what strategy did you use, betting, banker/player selection ?

No replies would indicate, we have mainly lost ( LOL )

Merry Christmas
 
oscar Posted: 07-Jan-04 08:08
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I dont know the game, but even if you bet the better way, you only prevent loosing. Thats true in all casino games, even in Video Poker and Blackjack, with the only exception of the (dangerous) table Poker.

Bet at casinos only for fun!

See for instance www.wizardofodds.com so that you get the house-edge of baccarat and dont loose your money too quickly.

See my message about PROS in section roulette - real gambler s.
 
parama46 Posted: 09-Feb-04 14:45
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@John - Too bad Baccarat Board has so little life. Have you dropped roulette as your earlier posts indicated you would? Also have you had continuous success in Baccarat? Please share or e-mail me privately if you wish. Have been following your posts for some time now. - kjp
 
johno Posted: 09-Feb-04 19:00
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Parama

Yep I've dropped Roulette, I've lost too many times in the past to what I believe dealers deliberately trying to make you lose, spinners being unable to contain their excitement at doin' so like at SKY CITY AUCKLAND {Wankers}. Besides with a house edge of 2.7% compared to Bac. Baccarat is now my preferred game.

Have I had continuous success playing Bac, no, have I been succesful so far, yes.. 175 units up in just under 3 weeks, my units are Black. I've had 3 losing sessions (compared to over 50 winning sessions), two down to lack of discipline (inc' Roulette enticement) and too much gung-ho, all or nothing attitude, and one other, where what you expect to see once a "blue moon" or whatever perhaps, happened to often, one of those nights.

I've previously mentioned on GG my betting strategy, Fibonacci, with my sequence being 1,2,3,5,8,13 if I lose 13, my next bet would be 6 units, a win here my next bet would be 7 units. Alternatively a 13 unit loss followed by a 6 unit loss and my next bet would be 9 units.

Basically I'm trying to win 13 units by rounding down, to 10 or half of 10 (5, 15, 25) once achieved "hopefully" I'll go for the 8 units, but not in 1 attempt, because if I lose that one, your next bet is up to 13 and possibly beyond. I prefer to keep my unit bets much lower.

Money management is very important, if you have a huge bankroll, you could play Fibonacci up to whatever.

My bet selection, is not rocket science, others have had the same idea and published them on the web. So here it is.

See 3 Bankers or Players, bet the opposite, if you are chasing a 2nd win, still wait for this sequence, or bet 1 unit and add or subtract that to the number of units you are chasing...

Let me explain,,,

You have won/recovered 13 units, you now need to win 8 for a 2 unit profit. You are getting impatience waiting for 3 x streak, and betting 4 units. So you see 2 players on what has been a choppy shoe, instead of betting 4 units, you bet 1 unit, a win great, you are now chasing 7 units. If you lose you are chasing 9 units, so your next 4 unit bet has gone up to 5 units, against 3 players. Next bet 5 units, lose that and your bet against 5 players could be 4 units to round to 10 or 9 units to round down to 5. Sure bankroll is important, but at this stage I've put Fibonacci to bed until this betting progression has been concluded "either way"

It's that simple, and before GG members jump all over me, sure you see streaks of 12 wins, they are very few, you should have made your 10 units by this time. Or reached your stop limit, which for me is a 13 unit bet, after which I'm playing recovery, which I have explained, the reason why money management is important..

I have looked at bac results and from what I have gathered the bulk of streaks are around the 6 mark. If you are moving around and look at a table in mid shoe, you sometimes get a gauge for how it is going, I know this has no correlation on the next hands, but it is something I look at. I don't track results myself, unless I sit down, I'll wander up to a table and check other players score cards (don't rely on 1 player, check out 2).

If the shoe is really choppy, I'll bet Banker against 2 players, but not the other way around. Has it been successful, overall yes, have I been in situations where I've bet against streaks of 12, yes, I've survived streaks of 10 by doin' the recovery mode above, that is avoided a total wipe out, recovered, won my 10 units and left.

I've recovered from -81 units one night, by team playing, forcing open tables by betting banker and player at the same time, waiting for 3 of a kind, and betting the opposite, I gave an acquittance $300 he turned that into $1900 in a few hours while I scouted other tables, he played aggressively, starting at 2 units. Have I lost big, yes, am I up overall yes. Is it a sure fire way to win, NO.

That's why it's called gambling, what is the element of risk, with stop limits etc, you should do ok, could you hit streaks of 12 on consecutive days or shoes sure.

But what are the odds here:

Probability of losing against at 9 streak lenght is 0.3%, and you have not entered the streak until the 3rd hand, right!

Odds of losing against a 4 streaks = 7.6%, 5 streaks = 4.0%, 6 streaks = 2.1% etc.

Check out http://krigman.casinocitytimes.com/articles/5485.html for more info.

The majority of the time you will not, which is why a hit and run method and a reasonable stop limit, you should do ok. Again this is why it's called gambling. Do I like casino's, empathic NO.

Do I take risks, yes, am I crazy some say yes, am I a fake, no, do I have a sense of humour, all Scouser's do

Casino's love system players, so I'm sure you will love you with open arms, all I ask is, if anybody cares to follow the above let me know how you get on, if anybody IMPROVES on the above, I'd LOVE to hear from you....

Example, the casino provide you will pencil and paper so you can track the 4's and 6's, right more 4's leave the deck, better for Banker bet, and vis-versa, you have to convert to a TC. I've tried this a few times, as the deck gets close to 90%, when I've played the entire shoe (well you can't ask the punters to track 4's and 6's for you, while you move around other tables!!!), but results have been poor, but it was just another aspect that I was looking at.

I've also considered a 6 step martingale, I would not then require the 2 win step fibonacci, but considered it too dangerous, and I don't have that kinda of bankroll for the level I play at.

Good Luck

Johno......................................



Just a footnote to this post, if you are concerned about the bets getting to high too fast against a possible streak, you can switch to a straight Fibonnaci, 1,1,2,3,5,8 etc

This adds more safety, will cover you for another hand before staking the big one, but you won't get up so fast, won't end up with a 2 unit profit after you go into and end a progression and but could last longer, if you know what I mean.

Today, walked in, at about my third bet, ended up betting against a streak of 10 players, real bummer, within an hour I was facing a wipe out and 30 units down. Unfortunately had to nip to the bank to build up my stake again. Still had 10 chips. Played, 1,1,2 for safety, took a few hours won my stake back, then another 18 units profit, while that is average, if you look under the covers, I did not touch any of the money which I drew out of the bank. So in theory I turned 10 units into 48 units. You have those sort of day's. Sure you could hit 9 series streaks all the time, call it luck or whatever.

If you limit your potential loss, you can overall do very well playing the above. This aspect I'm personally still working on, it's easier to chase/ recover a 45 unit loss over the coming days rather than 100 unit loss.

Baccarat is all about:

MONEY MANAGEMENT (it is paramount)
PATIENCE
KNOWING WHEN TO WALK (win & loss limits, come back and fight another day)
BET SELECTION



[Edited by johno on 10-Feb-04 06:12]
 
parama46 Posted: 10-Feb-04 09:31
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Thank you John for sharing - excellent post - will checkout Website reference - thanks again. - kjp
 
johno Posted: 10-Feb-04 15:43
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Sometimes the best idea's come when you sleep on them, anyway after spending some time last night analysing my game, which is working for me, I got to thinking about the figures.

Basically playing with a $100 units, if I encounter a streak greater than 9 I'm in trouble (and having to go into recovery mode), I'm seeing that more often now than when I first started playing, that aside I'm still doin' well, but also spend a lot of time waiting for a streak of 3.

Here's my idea, lower my unit level to $50, now I don't have to wait for a streak of 3, 2 will do, plus I can now take the progression to 9 or 10 steps, don't even have to wait for a streak playing $25 units.

I'm playing more hands per shoe, most probably every hand,
my required stake increases by a few $k, my safety margin increases, a streak of 12 hurts @$50. My win margin halves. Obviously you can go further playing $25 units. From my observations the biggest streak I've seen so far is 12, and from my exprience playing over the last 3 weeks or so, judging how the shoe has performed is important.

So what is the downside....

Say you hit a streak of 10, you have won your bet by placing 55 units units. You are -$1550 down on the bet. Your next bet needs to be 34 units, a second consecutive streak is going to hurt if you don't have the nerve or bankroll. Let's say a streak of 10 followed by a steak of 4, to beat the second streak you need to place 233 units. Okay you could break up the required 34 units as previously described, but then it becomes a slog. You want to hit and run, with a choppy shoe you will win everytime it changes from banker to player. A streaky shoe and you might find yourself laying out some big bets.

I still have not got a decent answer for this one, other than to break things up when the bet starts to get to big. And a Martingale is not the answer. Bac is just like Roulette in the aspect that the longer you play, the more likely you will come up against the results from hell, so set your win limit, and get the f$#k out. If you encounter the shoe from hell first off, don't panic, it won't happen each time, and you will do well overall.

Case in point, I lost over 100 units last week due to reasons described elsewhere, won back 45 the following day, 30 the next, and so on. Bloody kicking myself for not walking out after losing 45 units rather than hitting the ATM. It's so much easier to recover 45 units than 100....

Now go and do it to them, before they do it to you


Johno


[Edited by johno on 10-Feb-04 16:55]
 
dozenbetter Posted: 11-Feb-04 14:07
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Hi Johno -

You appear to have some misconceptions about the likelihood of streaks continuing.

Here are some facts about streaks and the chances that they will continue.

If you were to analyze the streaks in 600 shoes from the entire book of "72 Days at the Baccarat Table" you would find that the results almost duplicate the theoretical projections that mathematicians say will happen.

Columns are as follows:
Streaks/72 days book/ Theoretical
1 10344 10297
2 5142 5148
3 2549 2574
4 1305 1287
5 623 644
6 310 322
7 174 161
8 81 81
9 29 40
10 18 20
11 10 10
12 4 5
13 1 3
14 3 1
15 1 1

Notice that the likelihood of a streak longer than the previous length can be deduced quite readily because the number of appearances of a next longer one is exactly the same as occurences of the streak you are considering (just add up the totals of streaks which follow the one you are considering).

For example, of all streaks that ever occur of six, half of them will end at six and half go to seven or more. (Deducing from the theoretical data if you played and observed streaks of at least 6 occuring 1000 times, 500 times they would end at six and 500 times it would be seven or longer). Now.... how many shoes one would have to play before the numbers fit the theoretical I don't know, but we can see from the 72 days book that in those 600 shoes it almost meets the theoretical. If we knew how few shoes it would take for the projections to hold true that would be even more useful for us.

I am not a mathematician, but those math enthusiasts who frequent the GamblersGlen board might have additional comments on this data... However, just common sense will enable you to gain quite a bit of insight from the orderliness of these patterns. It seems like if you have a streak of 6 you will have a 50/50 chance that streak will end at 6, or (obviously) the same chance it will go to seven.

Sam

[Edited by dozenbetter on 11-Feb-04 15:28]
 
johno Posted: 15-Feb-04 00:49
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Hi Sam

I've noticed that the link that I refered to above deals with BJ, and not Baccarat, I'm burning too many midnight candles, especially this week, any loss = more time at the Cas' to recoup.

I simply did a search at http://krigman.casinocitytimes.com, not sure 100% if the search was Baccarat or Baccarat + streaks. And in my excitement did not realise the link was for BJ, oh dear.

Your figures are very true, of course it's a bit less than 50/50 what the next hand is going to be after x lenght series. I would like to see some probability stat's but am too knackered (tried) at the moment to go looking for them.

Where did you get those theoretical figures come from ?

I really like your abandoment suggestion in some other post on GG, damage limitation I like to call it, because I win unit wise more often that I lose, the buggeration factor is the long streaks, so I will now start to abandon them at given criteria, either due to BR impact or simply the number of hands, or a combination of both.

To be very honest, I do not like to read, hear, think too much negativity in regards to what I'm doing, because I have a goal target, I'm not there yet, and there have been quiet a few occasions where I have questioned my own faith in what I have been doin'.

For example is it really down to LUCK ?
Are the Statistical GODS going to catch up with me, after I reach target, just prior, is lady luck going to desert me when I reach ZERO.

Am I getting too blaise about the whole thing, will I have to give the casino it's house edge of 1.46% on all my banker wins when I reach $100k, as what some smart kid dealer tried to tell me last night.

I don't know what I put my success down too, skill, not really, luck I sincerely hope not. Money Management I like to think so.

I'm currently surviving on blocks of 2-3 hours sleep twice daily, I get home after a win, and I'm wired, go to bed for a few hours then I'm up, strange thing a loss and I go right to sleep.

I do know one thing for sure, I'm feelin' pushed, driven, and obessed with concluding this by the end of Feb. I will have to end this pace by month's end, as it is far too much pressure, As a person who survives on pressure, even for me this is too much sometimes....

Later

Johno
 
dozenbetter Posted: 15-Feb-04 05:11
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Johno -

The theoretical data comes from mathematical books. You can search on the web for math regarding head/tails coin tosses. These have been studied for centuries. Pascal's triangle and Gaussian distribution are about this phenomenon of "random" occurences which are not so random overtime.

Sam
 
johno Posted: 15-Feb-04 17:28
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Thanks Sam

I'll do a search later tonight. Hey what was this group of people that you know who get flown by private jet to casino's ?

Send a Lear downunder and let's talk business. As I said elsewhere Baccarat in my opinion is a beatable game, it's all to do with BR, size of inital stake etc. And if you can handle the pressure, not sure if I can!!!!

If we are talking Lear's perhaps the win level may not be big enough. Plus if I'm playing 1 unit = $100 I can handle that kind of pressure easily, step it up to 1 unit = $500 and I feel the pressure, even though I try to think of it as 1 unit = 1 unit, irrespective of the value. This is what happened Fri' morn, got up playing $500 unit's, lost playing $500 units, panic stations, did not want to recover playing $500 unit's, had to do it the slow, long hard way with values inbetween, I got there and still walked with a profit. Hence over 12hrs in the Cas Fri.

IF I HAD THE BR, I'd be ordering my own Lear right now.

However (and this is critical in my play) I've heard that in the high roller area's you can not get away with placing units on Banker and Player at the same time, but they will deal up to 3 hands with no bets, nothing more. Can somebody confirm this please.

If you know such High Stakes players, answer this question.

If you are a millionaire if it not a problem to lose $50k right, it's not a problem to play with $10 - 25k units.

If your an average bloke like me who earn's less than $100k / yr, who can play with $100 units, but feels the pressure at $500 units, how do you handle the above kind of action, while in the back of your mind your thinking if this doesn't work, you might end up in a ditch somewhere.

I need to recover my Roulette losses back, build a $50k stake and play at those levels 1 unit = $500. It will come in time, but there's a part of me, which want's it now.

Johno
 
veroxii Posted: 15-Feb-04 18:18
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Johno,

Dude, you're doing amazingly well. Just don't let greed get the better of you. If you've been offered a system three months ago that GUARANTEED you all the wins (money-wise) you've had in the last month or so, would you have taken it?

I reckon you would've been EXTREMELY happy to take it and would've even paid good money for it if it was guaranteed.

So be happy with the way it's going. Don't get too impatient. Just take the golden egg every day. DON'T KILL THE GOOSE!

I think there's a lot of wisdom in some of those old sayings. <grin>

About the high-roller's area... if you're not the only person playing at the table, I can't see how they can force you to play every hand?? Maybe I'm missing something?

Cheers,
-V

 
johno Posted: 17-Feb-04 01:35
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V

I'll email you off-line.....

[Edited by johno on 17-Feb-04 09:13]
 
PK Posted: 18-Feb-04 23:22
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Johnno

In Australia you can get away with sitting out 3 hands in the High Roller room providing it is a full table. I doubt they would like you to do it too often during the one shoe but certainly I don't play every hand and I don't have problems. I think it depends more on your attitude and general demeanour.
 
johno Posted: 19-Feb-04 03:52
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PK

That was not really what I was getting at, from what I have been told, in the High Roller's you will not get away with placing a bet on Player and Banker at the same time to keep the cards moving, at 5% commission for every Banker win, you probably would not want to do this anyway.

So the High Roller environment will deal up to 3 hands without a bet, then you have to place something. Now the way I play, is to wait for sequences before placing a bet, and we could only place 5 bets per entire shoe, if the conditions are not suitable, I will not bet at all.

If you bet every hand, or even every three hands, you will more than likley lose, if you bet every 3 or 4 hand, it means you are seeing too many streak's.

Second rule of Bac is patience, no matter how long it takes.

Will I have a problem with this type of play?

 
stillgamb Posted: 20-Feb-04 19:40
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Johno,

Why would you want to play in the High Roller section, for example the casino where I play Mini-bac, your bet can be anything between $25.00 to $2500.00 a hand, so playing a 500.00 unit is not a problem however if you need to raise your number of units you would be limited to 5 units or $2500.00

Sorry I didn't get back to you off line, I didn't have a lot of time on my hands lately, things are just getting back to normal.

Regards,

Richard
 
johno Posted: 21-Feb-04 07:33
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Richard

Better playing conditions, less attention/heat, comps etc. The mini Bac tables I play at have a table diff limit of 10k, meaning if I ever did manage to progress to $500 units, my progression would be to 13 units max.

Basically my system is not foolproof, hit a few consecutive streaks after a betting opportunity and it can be painful, as I've found out on a few occasions.......

Still trying to fathom a workaround to this ???????????

Anybody have any idea's, basically you bet anti-streak for 3 bets, if it keeps streaking, get off it, wait for next betting opportunity, you come in, but your coming in at a higher stake, usually 5 units, if this also streaks, your getting off at 13 units, wait for your next betting opportunity, BUT you're coming in at 21 units, even if you win at this stage your next bet AFTER WAITING for the next betting opportunity is 13 units, you really can't afford many progressions / mistakes after this.

3 streaks and your out.....(LOL).

Regards
Johno

 
Chess and Baccarat Posted: 20-Jan-09 23:30
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HeHaw,

johno Posted: 15-Feb-04 18:28
As I said elsewhere Baccarat in my opinion is a beatable game, it's all to do with BR, size of inital stake etc. And if you can handle the pressure, not sure if I can!!!!

The mini Bac tables I play at have a table diff limit of 10k, meaning if I ever did manage to progress to $500 units, my progression would be to 13 units max.


Plus more interesting quotes on this Topic!!

[Edited by Chess and Baccarat on 21-Jan-09 00:32]
 
tri Posted: 20-Jan-09 23:46
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i did have the whole month of winning (i think very much due to patient). but at the end too much stress, tire (8 hours per play). so i did gave some of the winning back. i would believe with a team work, this game would be beatable. it just too much for a individual to do by himself.
 
johno Posted: 21-Jan-09 03:12
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Chess and Baccarat, there is only one casino in Oz that offers that kind of spread, is this your regular venue?

Tri - if you win for a few days, you need to take a few days off, you will tend to become complacent and slack off. After a few days off and have hopefully locked away some of your profit, the edge will be back there (safety play). The shoes will not to conform each and every time.


[Edited by johno on 21-Jan-09 08:59]
 
calvin6688 Posted: 21-Jan-09 09:26
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Hi Johno


<there is only one casino in Oz that offers that kind of spread,>

My local casino calculate the spreads not on individual
their spread is on the the maximum on each table allowed
e.g. on a 100$ min the maximun this table will take is 11000
if you are betting 50$ u can ride piggyback with other players.
This a very common senerio.
same as in the 300$ min the maximum is 35000
Cheers

Win1win2.
 
metalwyrm Posted: 26-Jan-09 07:15
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online casino, playing baccarat at $1 base chip value, using a negative progression and simple tracking, starting with $300, I turned it into about $1000

then those fuckers reset me back to my original deposit because of some bullshit in the "terms of service" about slot machines and the dinky bonus they gave me blah blah blah....

so I did it again lol, added a little extra (about $200 more I think) to the account and started playing $2 to go twice as fast, I'm still up to about $1100

playing online is not bad if you get a casino that allows you to withdraw (on a regular basis) as you can cycle hands insanely fast compared to a live casino (it's just a lot more work on the keyboard than just laying chips down on the table and writing here and there)

nowadays though, I wouldn't use such a negative progression
 
kingsr Posted: 26-Jan-09 15:41
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i think there are a zillion ways to play this baccarat game. i know i have tried at least a 1000 on paper anyway. with this said all i can come up with is about 3 units avg. per shoe. truly dont think anyone else can do better.
 
Chess and Baccarat Posted: 26-Jan-09 23:50
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kingsr, << all i can come up with is about 3 units avg. per shoe. truly dont think anyone else can do better. >>
If the above two SAD statements are true, how come on your profile your occupation is listed as baccarat player?
 
kingsr Posted: 27-Jan-09 00:23
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hey do some arithmetic. avg 3 times how many games played per week = ? thats my take home.
 
Chess and Baccarat Posted: 27-Jan-09 13:43
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<< avg 3 times how many games played per week = ? thats my take home >>

3 units times ?games times ?unit amount = ?thats my take home.

 
GARNABBY Posted: 28-Jan-09 10:50
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Hi everyone,

There're MANY religions but only ONE bomb. Trust in science, use it to find your god if you must.

Before setting off on wild goose-chases, look for the grains of truth in all those methods; then, apply mathematical devices to best exploit those as a group.

That's enough for now. However, for more posts please check out the baccaratforum.com site.
 
Chess and Baccarat Posted: 28-Jan-09 13:36
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Well said Mark!!

Keep up your good work!!
 

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