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Author Topic: Powerplay Baccarat Level 1 Test
markkin Posted: 19-Apr-03 18:02
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Here are my preliminary tests for Powerplay Baccarat Level 1 Static M
oney Management shoe #1-157 in 72 Days at the Baccarat Table by Erick
St Germain.
Since Mr. Vegas stated in the Powerplay Baccarat Level 1 manual that
“Any system that cannot win using a flat bet method is not worth the p
aper it is written on,” and in the Powerplay Baccarat Level 1 Static M
oney Management he stated “I invite you to learn this system and repla
ce the modified martingale strategy, with the new STATIC money managem
ent method,” I decided to test Powerplay Baccarat Level 1 using Static
Money Management. Thus, Powerplay Baccarat Level 1 should win with 5
step mini-martingale, static, or flat betting money management.
Since Powerplay Baccarat Level 1 is suppose to have an advantage of 2
%, the number of hand won should be 52% no matter what money managemen
t you use. If you use the 5 step mini-martingale, your win rate will
be increased compare to flat betting or static money management, but y
our hand won percent will be the same.
After receiving an e-mail about progression money management from Jim
at www.casinoedge.com Ultimate Baccarat, I decide to test Powerplay B
accarat Level 1 with Static Money Management.
Here is an insert from the e-mail by Jim.
“Progressions are an illusion. I can give you a progression whereby
you will win 90% of all shoes! A simple Fibonacci will do that if you
go up high enough. Problem is those 10% losers will, in fact, cost y
ou all your winnings and then some. The strength of progressions from
a point of view of marketing is that many players will rarely hit any
losing shoes while some players will hit a bunch in a short period of
time. This phenomenon is termed "variance." Example. I played a pr
ogression for fun on my computer with real shoes and went 75 shoes wit
hout losing a shoe. But the math caught up to me and then I lost 3 sh
oes out of the next 10 which made me hit ruin. Therefore the sellers
may get along for quite a long time with claims of a fantastic system.
If you have a flat bet system you then can apply a progression to it.
This will increase your hourly win (units per shoe) and require a la
rger bankroll but will NOT increase your percentage win (percentage do
llars won per dollars bet). This is a mathematical truism. This is w
hy the casinos have maximum bet limits. On that rare occasion when yo
u lose enough to have to play more than the Max bet you are in deep.
Of course you can use progressions that never hit the maximum. This w
ill automatically reduce your shoe win rate proportionate to your bet
size. Personally, I like to use both an up as you win combined with a
n up as you lose progression on my method which wins flat betting. Tw
o distinct progressions played simultaneously. This along with strata
gem rules can become quite difficult and confusing.”
Here is an insert by Michael Brannan from www.casinoedge.com Ultimate
Baccarat concerning progression money management.
“A couple of points: first, adequate baccarat method should be able t
o win flat betting. If it does not, there is no particular reason to t
hink it will show a profit when used in conjunction with a progression
. Some system use long, even l-o-n-g progressions, to create an illusi
on of an advantage.
Recognize that it could take 10,000 decisions or more to get any stat
istical certainty when testing a system--say getting two standard devi
ations to the good of the expected value. If you run a two step
progression, it would then take 20,000 decisions to test (you'll win
your first bet about half the time, so 20,000 bets will produce 10,000
at the second level of the progression); for a three step progression
, it would take 40,000 decisions to test, at a minimum.”
After testing Powerplay Baccarat Level 1 Static Money Management sho
e #1-5 and after many trial and errors and assist from David, I submit
ted the shoe #1-5 to David, Mr. Vegas associates, to look over the sho
es. David stated that I did the shoes correctly. Since David stated
that I did an excellent job, I have the confident to finish testing Po
werplay Baccarat Level 1 Static Money Management with the suggested ba
nkroll of 150 units. After I finished testing Powerplay Baccarat Lev
el 1 Static Money Management shoe #1-157, I loss the suggested bankrol
l of 150 units. I have submitted the losing shoes to David and Mr. Ve
gas waiting for approval, but since David stated that I did the first
5 shoes correctly, I am sure that I did the shoe #1-157 correctly. I
know I have made some mistakes, but I did not made consistent errors t
hat have loss the suggested bankroll.
I tested Powerplay Baccarat Level 1 Static Money Management, exactly
like I was playing it in real life. I cycle out when I hit my win or
loss daily session.

1 Daily session wins (Shoe 1-5): 25
2 Daily session wins (Shoe 6-11): 24
3 Daily session wins (Shoe 12-23): 23
4 Daily session wins (Shoe 24-37): -38
5 Daily session wins (Shoe 38-42): -40
6 Daily session wins (Shoe 43-46): -38
7 Daily session wins (Shoe 47-51): 21
8 Daily session wins (Shoe 52-63): 24
9 Daily session wins (Shoe 64-72): 23
10 Daily session wins (Shoe 73-84): -40
11 Daily session wins (Shoe 85-89): 23
12 Daily session wins (Shoe 90-146): 28
13 Daily session wins (Shoe 147-157): -40

Lifetime Bankroll 145
Initial Bankroll 150
Number of Shoes 157
Average unit per shoe before com -0.032

Total Commission 160.1
Lifetime Bankroll after com -10.1
Average unit per shoe after com -1

Number of +1 bets 1176
Number of +2 bets 248
Number of +3 bets 498
Number of +4 bets 9
Number of -1 bets 1166
Number of -2 bets 260
Number of -3 bets 495
Number of -4 bets 9
Total hand won 1931 (50%)
Total hand loss 1930 (50%)
Total play 3861

In conclusion, even if I tested the shoes with Powerplay Baccarat Lev
el 1 using flat betting or 5 step mini-martingale, the hand won rate w
ill be the same. If I test the shoes using Powerplay Baccarat Level 1
5 step mini-martingale, I may win, but the occasion loss will cost al
l my winnings. Thus, rather you play Powerplay Baccarat Level 1,2,3,
or 4, you need to test it with flat betting.
Jerry Adams, Suchin Towjieo, and I all have had negative results with
Powerplay Baccarat Level 1 Static Money Management or 5 step mini-mar
tingale.
I have the Powerplay Baccarat Level 1 Static Money Manageme
nt shoe #1-157 72 Days at the Baccarat Table in excel format, if anyon
e and interested, you can e-mail me.
Mr. Vegas is having Powerplay Baccarat Level 1-4 programmed, and it
will be ready next week for are official customers for free. When the
program is ready, I really want to know if Powerplay Baccarat Level 1
-4 can get the hand won percent to be 52% against 600 shoes in 72 Days
at the Baccarat Tables.
Lindsay Montgomery has had success with Powerplay Baccarat Level
4 using March money management, but I wonder if her hand won percent w
as at least 52%. Maybe, Lindsay Montgomery can play Powerplay Baccara
t Level 4 using larger unit with flat betting money management instead
of small unit with March progression money management. If Powerplay
Baccarat Level 4 wins, either money management will produce the same h
and won percent.

Websites
http://www.letstalkwinning.com/ discussion forum
http://www.beatvegas.web.com/
http://beatvegas.web.com/
The about post was originally post in the http://www.letstalkwinning.
com/
discussion forum.

Mark
 
markkin Posted: 19-Apr-03 20:44
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Even though my preliminary results were negative for Powerplay Baccarat Level 1 Static Money Management, both Jerry Adams and I both agreed that David and Mr. Vegas answered all my questions and were always there to help me learn Powerplay Baccarat. http://www.beatvegas.web.com/ has the best customer service I have seen in a long time. Mr. Vegas and David are currently going over my Powerplay Baccarat Level 1 Static Money Management shoe# 1-157 in 72 Days at the Baccarat Tables. Later this evening, Saturday, April 19, 2003, David will be sending Mr. Vegas results for his testing over Powerplay Baccarat Level 1 Flat betting against 72 Days at the Baccarat Tables, so I can evaluate. I will keep the people in this Let’s Talking Winning Discussion Forum updated of the results and testing of Powerplay Baccarat. My results are legit and unbiased. IF my hand testing of Powerplay Baccarat Level 1 wins or loss against 72 Days at the Baccarat Table, the results are real. I hand tested it using consecutive shoes only.
Thus, the results are still pending waiting for David and Mr. Vegas to go over my shoes, and I can go over Mr. Vegas flat betting shoes against 72 Days at the Baccarat Tables.

Mark
 

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