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Author Topic: The Sequel to Elongated Star, the mildest progression you will ever need
johno Posted: 04-Aug-08 05:27
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The brilliantly conceived STAR and its many derivatives.
In a nut-shell is a delayed Fibonacci.

First off, this is my understanding of Star, or more importantly the
way I implemented it at the tables.

Flat bet five times, then when you have lost these five units,
bet five times this amount using a Fibonacci progression once you hit
the progression stage..

Therefore it would run something like this,

$25-$25-$25-$25-$25- then $125 - $200 - $325 etc

Or

$10-$10-$10-$10-$10- then $50 then either $100 if using $50 units, or
$75 if using $25 units. Starting at level 1 and level 2 of the
Fibonacci. Consisting of a pre-progression and progression stage.


So what are our options to stretch this a little, squeezing a little
more leeway where making wrong decisions is not costing a great deal.
A stress free approach to playing when in the pre-stage.

Rather than trying to recoup the five lost bets in one bet, work the
units backs.

Starting with a base bet of $10 (for US and Australian playing
conditions), the table min in Auckland NZ is $15.

$10-$10-$10-$10-$10-$10-$10 = $70 now you change to playing $25 unit
s with a goal target of three, once cleared will produce a $5 profit,
less commissions, any half price payouts (punto 2000) are ignored.

The same approach can be taken for the $25 min tables as they are in
Canada.

$25-$25-$25-$25-$25-$25 then 3 units @ $50
or
$25-$25-$25-$25-$25-$25-$25-$25 then 4units at @ $50 or 2 units @ $10
0

Now lets consider UK playing conditions, most tables are £5 min,
fantastic for adding depth to STAR.

£5-£5-£5-£5-£5-£5-£5 for a total of £70, you have many ways to play y
our progression stage depending on your comfort zone.

Switch to £10 units, the goal target would be 4
Switch to $25 units, the goal target would be 3

However you can expand all options further.

Let’s take the UK tables.

£5-£5-£5-£5-£5-£5-£5-£5-£5-£5 = 10 step pre-progression stage = £50

£5-£5-£5-£5-£5-£5-£5-£5-£5-£5-£5-£5-£5-£5-£5-£5-£5-£5-£5-£5 = 20 step
pre-progression stage = £100

There is no need to go from playing £5 units to £100 units.
You simply can set a goal of 4 x £25 or 2 x £50.

It all depends on the players bankroll, what they feel comfortable be
tting.
If you can’t see yourself betting 5 x £50, then don’t play £50 units.

The same applies to the $10 minimum tables.

$10-$10-$10-$10-$10-$10-$10-$10-$10-$10 = $100 you can cut this off
anywhere you like, you can even construct it so the progression stage
shows a little profit to compensate for the 5% Banker commission
penalty.

You have the option of switching to $25, $50 or $100 units.

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see how it would be possible to
construct a 40 step pre-progression stage if you wanted to.
Obviously this is easier on the 5 minimum tables, the progression
stage doesn’t not have to cost the earth.


In case you are wondering, no I haven’t forgotten the option of
switching to a Labouchere for the back end. This would ease some of
the pressure playing the bigger unit size,
is more manipulative but comes with a higher win ratio.

Lets say $25 minimum tables, and you have decided to use an 8 stage
pre-progression stage for a total cost of $200, and you have decided
to use $50 unit value for the progression stage,
as you don’t fancy betting stacks of blacks.

You eventually lose those 8 green chips. Using a normal Fibonacci
you would be expect to make a first recovery bet of $50, then $100 th
en $150, $250, $400, $650 etc.
Good job you decided to use $50 units, as betting blacks the bets cou
ld get quite high.

Rather than do all this, you are going to take the Labby approach.
You need to recoup $200 so you construct a string consisting of;

1-1-1-1 (each 1 = $50), ok if you are thinking, I need to bet $100 th
en $150, $200 given a series of losses. Well not really, you can
build a bit of cushion into it.

Let’s bet $50, if you win the string will go.

1-1-1

If you lose the string goes;

1-1-1-1-1

You decide when you have stretched your progression stage enough,
then commence to play as you would like a normal Labby.

The same principals apply to the lower value amounts.

$10-$10-$10-$10-$10-$10-$10-$10-$10-$10 then construct a Labby
string of 1-1-1-1 (1=$25)

Engage your Labby tactics as you please.


[Edited by johno on 04-Aug-08 06:43]
 
johno Posted: 04-Aug-08 05:44
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Ok, to the crux of the matter, how does it all work at the tables?

Let me stress something before I forget, you must be adequately capitalized for the progression stage. So maybe drop down to the table minimum or wait until you have increased your bankroll. I realise the original concept has mulitple stages, but I never used or considered building any 3rd stage, if you can wear the costs of such, you are probably moving into the realms of becoming near unbeatable, but lets leave that aside for another time.

The longer the pre-progression stage expect to tread water a lot longer, you could play entire shoes and never hit the progression stage, as I often do using a pre-stage of 8 chips. Great if you want to play for comps only, the profit may be non-existent if you are only flat betting. You don’t win and you don’t lose.

However it can get boring, but that’s up to the individuals personality and what their goals are. We all know you won’t come out ahead in this game by flat betting, not only will the 5% grind into your wins, it is extremely unlikely that you will score a greater than 50% hit ratio shoe after shoe.

So you could consider including a PARLAY option into your pre-progression stage. Especially if you are going to take things to the extreme such as using a 20 x 5 unit chip base, then switching to $25 unit progression stage.

Obviously the fewer units you have to win in the progression stage, the quicker you would expect to meet this goal and return to the pre-progression stage. So if you went from 20 x 5 to 10 x 10, expect to be in the progression stage a lot longer than if you switched to 4 x 25.

You need to find a balance that suits you. If you want to play 5 and 10 dollar / pound units, then reduce the pre-progression stage so that the progression unit requirement is not that great. Something along the lines of,

5-5-5-5-5 = 3u at 10
or
5-5-5-5-5-5 = 3u at 10
or
5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5 = 4u at 10

The shorter the pre-progression stage, the more quickly it will become depleted if you include a lot of Parlays So you have the best of both worlds, scope for positive progressions plus the back-end (recovery) is also mapped out.

I have found a 7 and 8 pre-stage more suitable for my own playing style.


However the extended pre-stage progressions now offer other possibilities, especially so in terms of mechanical play.

Let’s say you decide to play with a sizable pre-progression stage 10, 20 or 40 units (you have plenty of time of your hands) . You could if you wanted to, play FTL or DBL exclusively. Because you would not expect either of those bet selections to differ from the other by a factor of 20 or 40, seeing such would be very rare in my opinion. So again, you make no money, play all day and NEVER hit the progression stage, Ideal for the gambling junkies, retiree’s or recovery option for the positive progression players. The stats tell us, either of those bet selections are expected to even out within a reasonable number of shoes.

So for example using 20 times pre-progression base. You would not expect to experience a swing greater than 20 of chops to streaks in any given third of any shoe. The longest chop sequence I saw was 22, a once in a life time event. And so what if you do strike it, you have the progression stage already mapped out.

Can you spot the opportunities here? No need to guess this way or that way, if you don’t want to.


When I first played this a few years back, I played DBL only along with as mentioned a 7 pre-stage. I view what I am doing now as an extension of my early iteration. I’ve had people play my method on alternatively tables to the one I’ve been sat at, and the feedback was at the time, the 7 chip pre-stage was one the best methods they have seen. There are benefits to getting other to play for you, first off most other players have more patience than me, and if multiple tables are available, you can increase the profitability for the same time period, if you have faith in what your are doing, can trust the person you are using, while maintain a low base unit bet.


As of today, I’m playing a 8 pre-stage and combining FTL/DBL, it’s just that I see a lot of long 2’s on the six deck shoes. In fact the six deck shoes seem to defy all expected streak distribution, so you have to rely on pattern capturing.

Another thing you have to watch out for, is the slow deplete of the pre-progression, especially if using something like FTL or DBL exclusively, as their respective weaknesses are common.

Example – you have been chipping away getting nowhere fast, your pre-stage is down to the last 2 units, and now you hit a long series of two’s or chops. Basically you didn’t have the benefit of a full cushion prior to hitting the two’s or chops. So now you are playing in the progression stage and losing every hand.


Now the bet selection I decided to use and as mentioned in the elongated star thread, might make more sense.

Sure I lose against;

Chops then two’s and/or two’s then chops.

However I should have a close to full pre-progression stack on it’s first occurrence, which hopefully the castle (refer other thread) wall won’t continue, I recoup FAST, and switch back to the pre-stage.

I choose my personal nemesis to be;

X
O
XX
OO
X
O

And so on.

There is no right or wrong answer. You can as some do, trend and guess your way around. That approach simply doesn’t work for me, so I prefer set plays. Because I can ride out the first occurrence.

Now I could extend the pre-progression stage and do a lot more “riding out”. Then the above sequence will be of no consequence whatsoever, even if it repeats, and I win against all other patterns.

However I do like to make money occasionally, and even playing even with a pre-stage of 8 really does my head in, after just a few shoes I find my patience is shot, especially if I’m only a few units up, and usually end up skipping the pre-progression stage altogether.

I will post a shoe soon, which will spell out clear as night and day the importance of discipline, and that the expression “maintain discipline” is not merely words you see brandied about on gambling forums.

YOU, may be better at this than me, it is what I strive for, but in all honesty don’t maintain.


Okay finally, if you recall my thread “can you handle this”, that included how when playing with these bastardisations of STAR, you can keep your bets lower for longer, and if you play mechanically can to a certain degree hope to ride out the most extreme worst case scenario’s. Now this does not preclude anybody from playing via trends.

What is milder than;

Betting a base of £5 or $10, six, seven, eight, nine or ten times, beyond if you desire.

If the Fibo back-end doesn’t appeal, then use a Labby and start with some 1u bets to build up the string further before you switch to the normal Labby betting mode.

I am in the camp of, if you are going to use negative progressions, you need depth.

So as a comparison of a normal fibo and 7 pre-stage of Star.

Expected progression increase rate.

Fibo

1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34-55-89-144 for a 11 step wild ride progression.

Star (7-pre-stage)

1-1-1-1-1-1-1 (1-2-3-5-8-13-21) for a 14 step progression

Granted those back end figures are of a higher chip value than the normal Fibonacci.

So you would have to work out the total cost to come to your own conclusion/designing your own.


I hope you are able to take something from the above, if it’s mild that you are after, then it is my opinion there is nothing milder than the original Star and the Labby back-end. I have simply extended it further.


[Edited by johno on 04-Aug-08 06:48]
 
enrique malou Posted: 04-Aug-08 06:08
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Thank you very much Johno for long and good explanation. I look for Star on all of Gambler Glen and not finding it. I spending good time looking at this and understanding it. As you are one of the few realtime players on gambler glen and you still have time to share all this info. you are to be congratulated. I wishing you very good luck on your casino travels. good things come to good people even when lady luck can be bitch sometimes. haha.
 
arteinvivo Posted: 04-Aug-08 07:56
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Thanks johNo for this concise resumé of your approaCh.

you wroTe :
<< 1-1-1-1-1-1-1 (1-2-3-5-8-13-21) for a 14 step progression

Regarding the fibo what i like about it is also what i hate about it. your hits must come near one another. For example, you win if you have -1-2-3+5+3 or -1-2-3+5-3+5

Personnaly, i prefer the 2-5 system as described in the book Beat the Casino by Frank Barstow.

It's a five number bet series designed so that most combinations of two wins in the series will yield a fair profit relative to total risk. For example he suggest :

5,7,12,15,25 (risk 64) or 2,3,5,7,10 (risk 27)

With these series you start with the low number and move up until you have 2 wins, or until you win or lose that last number in your series. In either case you repeat the process. Frank wrote : This version, when used by partners betting opposite each other, may not be foolproof, but it comes close.

Type of luck needed : about average
You should expect to get your 2 wins about 84% of the time and about half those wins will come before you reach the fourth bet in the series.
 
johno Posted: 04-Aug-08 08:32
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Art I don't have a problem with cycling through the figures 2,3,5,8, up and down for any number of bets. Therefore I'm not really concerned with the win requirement.

I do have an issue with cycling through the steps of 13,21,34,55,89, I want to get my bets much lower, therefore will regress at any of these stages. Profit is not an issue at this stage, rather getting the bets lower. Betting at those levels and you run the risk of busting.

One thing you left out when comparing Barstow. Is the chance of losing 5 bets in a row, easily done IMO, losing 5 bets with a Fibonacci costs 19 units and you can still continue or go into recovery mode. It's gets a bit harder using your examples or even a five step martingale.

Also, this is the great thing about STAR, if you don't like the thought of the Fibonacci back-end, then don't use it. Revert to a Labby instead, simply appreciate your now dealing with a 33% hit rate instead of one which requires approx 26~28% after any bad run.

But the whole point is this. Is it gives the player plenty of scope to make mistakes, parlay, play a small negative progression 1-2-3, etc, many times over before you hit the progression stage. Sure you don't profit from those LWLW runs, there is always a trade off.

But as I said in the other post, IT'S BETTER TO NOT LOSE THAN TO WIN. If you can survive hard sessions then great, there will be easy sessions also, which is when you make your money.

Tomorrow I will post one of the shoes I played over the weekend, which illustrates the advantages of playing above, it also highlights the significance of table discipline.


I have never been in touch with the author of Star, but it is in my opinion one of the most valuable and sensible systems ever to appear, and it was I believe a freebie.

A lot of the document was waft, but the nuts and bolts fantastic advice if you have the patience to play this way. I like to think I've taken it one step further, the options are endless with lengthy pre-progression stages.

Delayed progressions are nothing new, and have been around for years, perhaps with my posts above, some will spot opportunities, new ones perhaps. Also for those who want to play with minimal risk, using a 20 step pre-progression, you could probably play all week without hitting the progression stage at the Baccarat tables.

Thanks enrique

 
arteinvivo Posted: 04-Aug-08 09:04
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Here are some ratios between both the fibo and 2 to 5 systems :

Fibo : 1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89

1 : 2 > 0,50
2 : 3 > 0,67
3 : 5 > 0,60 * 50% threshold
5 : 8 > 0,63
8 : 13 > 0,62
13 : 21 > 0,62
21 : 34 > 0,62
34 : 55 > 0,62
55 : 89 > 0,62

2 to 5 : 2,3,5,7,10

2 : 3 > 0,67
3 : 5 > 0,60
5 : 7 > 0,71 * 50% threshold half of your wins will occur before this step
7 : 10 > 0,70

2 to 5 : 5,7,12,15,25

5 : 7 > 0,71
7 : 12 > 0,58
12 : 15 > 0,80 * 50% threshold
15 : 25 > 0,60



[Edited by arteinvivo on 04-Aug-08 10:05]
 
arteinvivo Posted: 04-Aug-08 12:46
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Fibo series using a ratio of 62%
8 13 21 34 55 89 144 233 377 611 990 1604 2598
Fibo series using a ratio of 67%
8 12 18 27 41 62 93 140 210 315 473 710 1065
Fibo series using a ratio of 71%
8 11 15 21 29 41 57 80 112 157 220 308 431
Fibo series using a ratio of 80%
8 10 13 16 20 25 31 39 49 61 76 95 119
 
johno Posted: 05-Aug-08 04:10
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I found the shoe I was looking for, from last weekend, note the diffe
rence in betting values comparing a normal fibonacci and a 8 chip dela
yed Star.

Here's how the shoe ran;


B
PPPPP
BB
PP
B
P
BB
PP
BB
P
B
PPP
BB
P
B
PPP
BBB
PPPP
BBBBBB
PP
BB
PP
BB
P
BB
PPP

Converting the above into W/L


The first figure is a normal Fibonacci, the figure in brackets is is
the amount bet using a delayed progression, the entire shoe is not sho
wn.

L 1 (1)
W 2 (1)
W 1 (1)
W 1 (1)
L 1 (1)
L 2 (1)
L 3 (1)
W 5 (1)
L 3 (1)
L 5 (1)
L 8 (1)
L 13 (1)
L 21 (1)
L 34 (1)
L 55 (2)
W 89 (3)
L 34 (2)
L 55 (3)
L 89 bust (5)
L -- (8)
W -- (13)
L -- (5)
L -- (8)
L -- (13)

It's was a tough nut to crack, decisions are random, shoe will throw
up all kinds of sequences, if this shoe is not your nemesis, then anot
her will be. Using a normal fibo you are dead in the water, using a d
elayed fibo, you stand a bit more of a fighting chance.

You need a lot of patience playing delayed for the entire session, gi
mme a few shoes and I'm flirting in and out with it.

There are a few whispers regarding the D'Alembert, I personally don't
like it, I have never been able to get it down once you are in a posi
tion of betting 10 units, the banker 5% will be eating into any 1u pro
fit margins if your getting LWLWLW.


Here is a couple of more shoes that stand out for me from the weekend
.

P
BB
PP
BB
PP
B
PP
BB
P
BB
PP
BB
PPPP
BBB
P
BB
PPP
BBB
PPP
BBBB
PP
BBBBBB
P
BBB

and

PPPP
BB
PP
B
PPP
BB
PPPP
BB
PP
BB
PP
BBBB
PP
B
PPP
BBBB
PPP
B
PP
BB
PPPPP
BB
P
B


Imagine playing DBL against any of them, doesn't matter how big you m
ake your pre-progression, your history.

Even Dbl Zz lost 12 times in a row on the 2nd shoe, which is the 2nd
worst performance I've seen in years for that bet selection.

Just look at that 2nd line, the hole gap is non-existant, I did ok on
those shoes as I was playing FTL, sometimes I tried to go with the fl
ow of the two's (ODBL), but that when the rare singles arrived.
 
radtek Posted: 05-Aug-08 05:03
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thanks,

I play fibonacci in negative :

0 1 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 5 0 8 0 13 0 21 16 hands all


I play fibonacci in Positive

1
1 0
2 0
3 1
5 2
8 4
13 and so on

 
bigjoe Posted: 05-Aug-08 10:40
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JOHNO, Stretching the opening to eight units is brilliant. Using it as a parlay early either you make several hits or only go down eighty bucks.

Going into the fibo and parlaying it makes up any previous loss and adds a proffit.

It got me to dust off and old bet sesection method. I had given up on it because of looking to score early. The ability to stretch out and be there when it trends amkes it useable.
I always used a D'Lam with some parlays but a losing run as you say buries it.

I know you have said before to stretch it but I needed to see it I guess.

The bet selection involves trending dbl with how it performed in the last four selections looking at the patterns in p and b dbl and the last four of dbl to hit or miss the individual holes.

GL bj
 
alexmanifi Posted: 05-Aug-08 15:06
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Johno,
Thanks for the great information and idea. I was under the understanding that in the Star progression the first how many bets were pre progression and were to be used as a parlay. Is that true also in your first 7 bets?
I have struggled with a origression and now am using flat bets only but with a mild progression might look at it differently. I just wanted to be sure about the parlay when testing against my method of picking sides and triggers. Thanks Alex
 
mhunt777 Posted: 05-Aug-08 19:17
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Hi Johno,
I see you have the main progression basically as a recovery method. Are you still using a delayed fib or a straight fib for the main progression?

Let's say you were using a base of $50 for your main progression trying to recover $200. On a loss would you go from $50 to $100 trying to recover or if you lost $50 2 times and try to recover at the $100 level and so forth.

Sorry, just a little confused on how you execute the main progression.
 
RouletteGuru Posted: 05-Aug-08 20:42
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Johno, simply stated when you lose, you chase your losses, no good. Never cahse your losses, your implementation of a mildest progression was in the wrong direction.

RG/BG
 
johno Posted: 06-Aug-08 04:17
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Hi to the thinkers on the board, good idea's tend to lead to others.

I did state that to play this way may require a change in MINDSET.

You must throw out of the window these goal targets of trying to make 20~30 units per shoe. They are great when you make this much in a single shoe, but also devastating when these approaches fail.

BJ obviously you are playing at a $10 min table, therefore would have a few options if you came in at the table min.

10 x $10 then 4 x $25 (10 pre stage more scope for occasional parlays)
8 x $10 then 4 x 25 for additional 2 unit profit once resolved to cover 5% B penalties.
7 x $10 then 3 x $25 for faster resolve.

Basically the smaller the pre-progression stage, the quicker you will hit the progression stage, also it provides less scope for parlay attempts should they fail, as your odds of winning back to back wins are 3-1 against.


There may be a bit of misunderstanding, I don’t parlay once you are in the progression stage (the fibo or labby portion).

I prefer playing a set way, in my case it's FTL/DBL, it's no better or worst than any other combo, and would be futile to suggest otherwise.

So using a fixed/set method of play, as opposed to guessing, you will be able to more easily determine your worst case scenario’s. Once you have determined your worst case scenario, you can reverse engineer your pre-progression stage to handle it. Then on the off chance you strike something worst than your previously worst case, the progression stage should carry you through.

Once you have some stats in front of you, you will have an idea on the size of pre-stage which should see you through the worst or the worst. It might be a bit hard to do if you were trending. This is what I'm working on at the moment, so the 8 pre-progression stage, may increase to 12, this way I would be confident of overcoming every things any shoe throws at me, but it takes a lot of patience to maintain playing this way. Hence the "mind-set" comments.


Also having spend a reasonable amount of time of this, once you get into the realms of going beyond a pre-stage and a single progression stage (more true to the original concept of STAR, excluding the elongated front end) then you are dabbling with the keys to the dealer tray!!!!


Alex – the parlay is entirely optional. You will probably find it frustrating losing a bunch of parlays, I certainly do. I have found the parlaying of wins have offered little advantage when you have 7~10 pre-progression stages. If you’re down to the last two chips in the pre-progression stage, then you might as well as parlay because more than likely you’re heading towards the progression stage regardless.

In the UK where some table minimums are £5, that would give me 20 units to play with for £100, or 40 units for £200. I suppose you could do the same in the US, but it wouldn’t feel right for me to buy in for $400 and flat betting with parlay’s then trying to recover $400 using green chips if it didn’t work. If you were to take this approach, using either a 20 or 40 chip pre-progression stage, then you MUST parlay occasionally if you want to come out ahead. This is what I meant, when I said you could probably play all day doing this, it is unlikely any standard bet selection would swing the reverse of it’s opposite times 20 and definitely not times 40.

For example – you simply would never expect chops to be greater by a factor of 40 over streaks. Therefore for the old timers who want to sit at the tables for a free buffet all day, this would be in my opinion the way to go.


777- it is a normal fibo for the main progression.

<$50 for your main progression trying to recover $200> If I was trying to recover $200, this tells me you are using a 4 step pre-progression, I would consider stretching it a bit further.

When I used a $50 base, I ran it like this; (using DBL only)

$50-$50-$50-$50-$50 then $250 - $400 - $650 I don't recall making a 21 unit bet, but you need balls to play this way (definitely in the hit and run camp). It also introduces a lot of mental pressure, unless of course you have a unlimited bankroll. In my opinion there are better way to play, meaning less risk, less mental pressure, less mental fatigue than any of these options, the progression stage only has 3 or 4 steps, a disaster waiting to happen.

For example, if you balk at the thought of betting 21 units at $50 = $1050, then you could consider lowering the base bet.

The progression stage needs to be at the very least twice the size of the base bet. So for a $50 base bet;

$50-$50-$50-$50 > $100 fibonacci needing to win 2 units, but really there is not enough depth in the pre-stage.

$50-$50-$50-$50-$50 > a bit messy

$50-$50-$50-$50-$50-$50 > 3u using a $100 fibo, if you have thousands of dollars stake, go for 1u using a $250 fibonacci.

The bigger the base bet, the more money you need for the back-end.


For the doubters, nay-sayers, the stuck in the mould non-thinkers. I've yet to lose playing this way this year, I haven't used it a hell of a lot, only about 40~50 shoes (LOL), plus a hell of a lot of testing. I usually make close to or more than 100% of my buy-in. It can be a slow and grinding process (believe me), which is why 15 min shoes are ideal. The effort required is beyond expected normal human endurance (j/k).

RG - to each their own bud. I have stated exactly what I am doing, I have yet to see your approach. If you are winning, then good..

 
arteinvivo Posted: 06-Aug-08 07:37
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<<So using a fixed/set method of play, as opposed to guessing, you will be able to more easily determine your worst case scenario’s.

You can easily determine your worst case scenario’s even if your BS = pure blind random guessing "a la Spike" or based on your instinct. You can easily do this by calculating 2 or 3 standard deviations and knowing the average number of decisions by session. You would probably be shocked to learn that both, fixed/set or blind luck/guessing, deliver the same worst case scenario's. The reason why both appraches produce the same worst case scenario's is the same reason why after a lot of trials, Red and Black will have roughly the same ratio 50%/50%.
 
johno Posted: 06-Aug-08 07:41
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Yep, Art I was thinking about standard deviations after I re-read what I posted. And have to agree with you.

So gimme some figures for 60 and 70 hands.
 
arteinvivo Posted: 06-Aug-08 07:44
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Johno, your approach is a bit similar to one i coded in 2005 which is known by the name of "Maximum advantage Plus system" created by a known scammer.

I wanted to test the author's pretention :

Maximum advantage Plus systems - Created on ... december 24, 2005
There are two versions of this system:

1) The original version.
2) The turbo charged's Arteinvivo version, 3 players.
3) The turbo charged's Arteinvivo version, 9 players.

This second version uses the same Controlled Risk Betting Strategy which is the strategy used to determine the size of each bet you make at roulette when you use this system and the Adaptive Pattern Betting Method, which is used to determine where to place your next wager..

The Maximum advantage Plus uses up to four betting series, which are called Series A, B, C, D. In my turbo charged version, instead of using four series, i use eight series but the last four series are activated only when the first fours series are losted. In other words, the first four series A, B, C, D are not really recorded in the player's bank only the next four series are took into account. Again a player that looses his first four series looses nothing, this is just my way to deal with a huge deviation from the norm.

You can get the code here :
http://www13.brinkster.com/arteinvivo/
 
arteinvivo Posted: 06-Aug-08 07:48
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<<So gimme some figures for 60 and 70 hands.

Let's look at the math but for 1000 hands at roulette :


N = 1000
P = .474 << winning probability
Q = .526 << losing prob. can also be computed this way : 1 - P

1 STD = SQRT(1000*.474*.526) = 15.79

Expectation = 1000 * .474 = 474 wins

So 2 STD = 15.79 * 2

etc.

You might also want to read this :
http://www.probabilitytheory.info/topics/equipartition.htm

[Edited by arteinvivo on 06-Aug-08 08:51]
 
arteinvivo Posted: 06-Aug-08 08:13
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If you want to try my simulators above, they are done with Javasctipt/VBScript and run inside internet explorer only. To start the show you need to double-click on the file named : "index.html"

Here is a snapshot :

http://i55.servimg.com/u/f55/11/75/07/03/maxadv10.jpg
 
johno Posted: 06-Aug-08 08:45
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Thanks Art, this is taking me away from what I was doing, all of a
sudden I need to be able to calc SD, when I have no idea what the
mean values are never mind the sum of.

All I know is what I need to be handle thus far.

My own 4 worst case shoes, using my own BS-

1- LWWWLLLWLLLLLLLWLLLLWLLLLLLWLLWLWWWLWWWWWLWLWLWWWWLWL

2- LWLLLLWWLWLLLWLLLWLWWLLLWLLLWLLLLLWWLLWLLLWLWWLLLWLLLWWWWWWWW

3- WLLLLWWWWWWWWLWLLLLWLWLLLWLWWWWLLLLLLLWWWWLLLWLWLWW

4- LLWLLLWWLLLWWWLLLLWLLWLLWLWWLWLWWWLWLWWLLWWLWLWLWWLWLLLLLLLLL

That last shoe was played with a fibonacci and no delay (my patience
had all been used up), it cost me a bit, but still managed to leave 80
+ units up on the night. I recouped that lost back in the next
two and bit shoes, then lost again and recouped again, then I said
basta, must have played 20+ shoes in just over 8 hrs.


[Edited by johno on 06-Aug-08 09:49]
 
A Wolf Posted: 06-Aug-08 12:45
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Those are definately two rough shoes you posted earlier Johno , I ended up 56 wins and 54 loss (flat betting senerio) . Both shoes tore up my 10 unit (marty/progression involved) BR once .

As far as those four shoes on your last post , it seems that you finished 104 wins and 128 loss , its difficult to recover 14 units "without" the help of a progression .

Terrible to be in those positions , thats when the mental aspect of the game grabbs you by the balls .

Glad to hear you stuck it out trusted your methods/progression and came out on top , way to go dude !

Wolf
 
johno Posted: 07-Aug-08 03:28
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Ok, quick assessment.

Using a 12 chip pre-progression, was simply treading water for the first shoe, a nice B streak at the end gave my profit stack a few chips.

Second shoe not much better "cut them thin and you will win", as I placed the cut card close to the front of the deck. Few 3 and 4 streaks, few chops, I kept getting caught on the wrong bet selection.

Every time you thought you would be hitting the progression stage, you would win a few hands, replenish the pre-stack and tread water a bit longer.

End of third shoe, was a massive 3 units up in my profit stack, and my 12 pre-stage stack stood at 3, so overall I was 6u down, not a hell of a lot, talk about safe!! It's better to not lose than to win, but this was too safe.

I had up to now hit the progression stage 3 times at this point, the first time I won 6 bets from 7 (lovely), the second time was also cleared quickly, the 3rd time took a bit longer, but also cleared.

With the 4th shoe, I left off the pre-stage, that's better, units started to come but so did the the bet size, biggest bet was 21 units. So basically you have to decide your own happy medium between profit and safety. I'll probably reduce the pre-stage next time i play.

Played another half a shoe, hit 41 units profit and made for the door after 2 hrs, and left the pit to scribble on their pad, as they now know I by pass the cage. They wre surprised I didn't finish the shoe after winning the last 3 hands. But hey goals targets are exactly that, and I had surpassed my initial one.

There is some smart ass girl on reception at this place, who makes a point of saying bye to me in a loud voice if and when I lose. She says fcuk all if I win, kinda like rubbing things in, if you know what I mean. She wasn't on duty last night, maybe next time, stupid bitch. Casino's never ending as always playing fcukin' mind games.

I sometimes indulge in my own, a bit of tit for tat. On Sunday afternoon when I rocked up, they said they would open the table in an hour, so I went away and came back in 2 hours. Then they told me somebody had called in sick, blah it would take another hour, fcuk this for a joke.

I noticed one manager working the cage, the other standing close by. So I'm thinking, fcukem, I walk over and cashed in all I had won in the last week. Stuck it right up in their face, nice stack of pinkies. I asked if they had fifty's rather than the twenties they were counting. Oh can you wait 10 minutes blah, nar I'll take the twenties.

Seems they now try just that little bit harder to find staff to open the table when I turn up. Maybe they think they are going to get that money back off me. Then they watch me flat betting for ages, patience is a wonderful thing.

Always pay the price of time, not the price of your bankroll.

[Edited by johno on 07-Aug-08 04:31]
 
enrique malou Posted: 07-Aug-08 05:53
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Hello Johno.
"Maybe they think they are going to get that money back off me. Then they watch me flat betting for ages, patience is a wonderful thing."
Keep it up Johno. fcuk 'em and if they do not like it. fcuk 'em some more. It is good to see these guys on the back foot. You are right about mind games. I was playing on airball machine yesterday (roulette) and I must be sitting there 3-4 hours. So all of sudden three-four croupier and manager appear at 21 table opposite airball machine. no customer playing or anything. and I hear manager making jokes to them towards me. then they all look over and start laughing. It make me feel bit embarassed. But at end of day he is the fcuker that has to wear the monkey suit and work for his peanuts. when I take ticket out of machine with good winnings I walking past him and smile and make sure he know that I have good time at casino. keep grinding 'em Johno. they do not like it one bit.
 
SPIKE Posted: 07-Aug-08 13:51
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. Maybe they think they are going to get that money back off me.>>>

Oh, bollocks.. If they were really worried they would restrict your play and get rid of you.
 
johno Posted: 07-Aug-08 15:21
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Rock up at 5pm, nice as pie they open their single table for me.

Lost the first 4 bets (all flat), it ran,

PP (no bet, 2 same = start FTL)
B lose 1u
P lose 1u, the next B loss puts me on DBL
BBBB lose 1u twice, win 1u twice, placing 1u's on the table better
than having to bet 8u straight off the bat.
The MM is the glue, the BS is 50/50, neither better or worst, or you
could use the secret OLD/FTL combo like our new aficionado.

PPP
BB
P
BBBBB
PP
B
PPP
BBBB
PBB
PPP
BB
P
BB
PPP
BBBBBBB
P
BBBBPBBB

I mean just look at that 2nd line, close to prefection.

LLLLWWLLWLWLLWWWWLWLLWWLWWWLLWLWWLWLLWLWWLWWWWWWLLWWWLLWWWW

Next shoe,

bbbbb
p
b
ppp
b
pp
b
p
b
ppppp
bbb
p
bbb
ppp
bb
p
b
p
b
p
b
p
b
pp
b
p
b
p
b
p
b
p
b
p
b
pp
b

Which translated into;

WWWLLLLWLWLLLLWLWWWLLWLLWWLWWLWLLLWWWWWWLLWWWWWWWWWWWLL

The manager who was dealing was spewing Spike, winning hands 9-8, by
the third card, it was magic that streak of W's at the end..

Final partial shoe,

PP
B
PPP
BB
P
BBB
PPPP
BBB

WLLWWLWLLWWLWWWLWW

Sod it, enough, it's mid-week, hit the progression stage once,
and got WWLWWLW.

45 minutes of arriving, I'm heading out of the door 40u to the good,
don't like to leave a winning shoe mid-way, but hey nobody can
force me to play, I got my daily bread and was heading home.

This was a dream session, I used a 10 pre-stage. Which did it's job
from the on-set aftr losing the first 4 bets. When I noticed the 2nd
line hole gap, I ditched the pre-stage until 2L. I should have parlay
's more often, especially on the 2nd shoe, but lost a few parlay's on
the first, I was content in winning single units as they where mountin
g up.

This was a dream session when everything just fell into place, I've e
nough exprience under my belt not to get carried away with it, Friday
may be different.

If it's mild you are after, then consider E-STAR as outlined above,
if you feel you have the trend sussed by whatever means, move in and
out of the use of the delayed part.

Spike for a player to quit 20 hands into a shoe, after winning 5
of the last 7 bets which includes the last 2 hands. His face could
paint a thousand words, he looked totally dejected, this was one
of the floor managers dealing to me. I've heard this guy talking
in broken English to the Asian players (broken english?) you
can see right through him.

Now he seeing me and hopefully realising not all gamblers are stupid.
Stupid sometimes but never always.

They won't do anything, they've seen me lose a lot more than
these winning sessions. It all comes down to being calm,
collective, patience and not over confident at the tables,
treading carefully and slowly, sometimes I use the delay,
othertimes I don't.

Hopefully Dizzy Miss Lizzy is on the door Friday, I'll flash her
some pink on the way out..



[Edited by johno on 07-Aug-08 16:56]
 
Big Red Posted: 07-Aug-08 20:27
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Over the many years I have played Bacc I've used so many different methods for betting that I've literally forgotten some of the earlier methods I used For me, the fun part is finding something new and interesting to use as a 'system'. Now, don't get me wrong, it's still all about the greenbacks and time and experience have proven beyond any doubt that MM is still the quintessential ingredient for success.

Similar to Johno's post here, I've been using a stetched Mongoose and using graded chip values to accomplish the stretch. So, the first 4 steps are 25$ chips, the next 3 steps are 50$ and then 2 steps at 75$ for a total of 400$ to this point. This gives me a 9 step "pre-progression" (technically not a pre-progression but you understand what I mean) before heading into the rest of the Mongoose progression with black chips. So, of course, I've gone through the normal first 4 steps of a natural Mongoose that I would have if I'd started with black chips and now I move onto the first 2 unit bet of the Mongoose. This works extremely well, however, where I live the tables are minimum 25$ and I understand that the bankroll for a lot of people would be too steep....but from what I've read here, there are quite a few places/countries/casinos where 10$ is the minimum and therefore this would be a very affordable comfort zone.

Personally, a long pre-progression of just flat betting would make me very impatient at the table. I've done it, but there were 2 things that made me 'leery' of betting this way. First, the monetary returns were never high enough for my liking in relation to time invested ( I have poor patience, and still, after all these years, I STILL get 'antsy' at the table, probably an after-effect of losing 2 grand flat betting once) and yes, that loss was the 2nd thing that made me leery. Truth is, if you wanted to just 'hang in' at a table, basically flat betting, then the Project 202 method will work wonders...but what's the point other than to brag that you can play for hours w/o losing your capital. Johno has the right idea above when he mentioned that he's going to shorten his (or eliminate?) pre-progression in order to 'get at' the profit a little quicker. His profit achievement above is all the more impressive when you realize how VERY difficult it is to make significant profits during the flat bet stages of any system design.

 
johno Posted: 08-Aug-08 03:06
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What is the Project 202 method?

As mention, you have to tailor this to suit your own persona and your own goals. Do you want to sit for hours with little risk, or fast potential profits and leave, along with a lot of risk. Some fit into the former camp, others the latter.

A combination of the two, some middle ground? There is nothing wrong if your have 75% of your pre-stage intact, from introducing a few 1u then 2u bets (I do this sometimes), and if you get LL (-3u)then drop back down to 1u rather than the expected 3u bet. It's all about flexibility and patience.

I understand exactly the drag of playing a few shoes for zero profit or close to zero loss, but that's it, I'd rather walk out of any casino EVEN than walking out minus a bankroll.

Unfortunately nobody is gonna walk out even, due to human nature, we all want something for our effort. So you will introduce some risk after a few hours, such as forgoing the pre-stage. Then it is either going to work or it isn't. Once you realise this and what may happen, it may help you avoid these pitfalls.

As some scammer included in his blurb. you have to constantly monitor yourself.

As no doubt with all gamblers, we tend to forget the losses and just focus on the winning sessions. There is nothing like a trip down memory lane and some bleak losing session for improving ones patience.

Realise the conscience mind has a tendency push to the back those negative expriences, bring them to the fore, then check your patience level.

And always monitor where you are at mentally while at the table, when you realise the inpatience is kicking in, is the time to take a break or quit..
 
johno Posted: 08-Aug-08 03:36
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Another thing the casino is also playing their part in trying to unsettle you, but in a nice way, but not always.

For example the waitresse asking you if you would like a drink too often when your under pressure due to a few losses, or the dealer trying to engage you in conversation like they are now on your side, or speeding up the game while you are trying to evaluate or do some unit count or maybe trying to determine your next bet size. The pit paying YOU too much attention that you can feel their eyes drilling into you.

Security hovering around, they are talking about you and not at you, it gets really bad when they have to bring in the stooges.

ALL FCUKIN BULLSHIT I've been there and had it all, know the game, know the tactics, don't let that shite put you off and give them a massive smile when you leave their table with their chips, they only way to put them in their place...

Which means you have to be twice as good than normal at the tables, you don't want to give the false bastards who treat the chips as their own the pleasure of smiling at you, do you.
 
Big Red Posted: 08-Aug-08 19:55
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J, the Project 202 method is a math based system by William Moyer that is mathematically sound but essentially a waste of time for use in a casino. It's one of those many systems that grinds its way to equilibrium if you're willing to sit at a table for hours and raise and lower your bets by a percentage amount relative to bankroll, wins, losses etc. etc. I may not be doing it justice by being dismissive, but the fact is for bettors such as ourselves it is simply too time consuming and boring with little (if any) profit in relation to time spent. Let me put it this way, if someone said you had to play this way, you'd probably poke your eyes out or at the very least, break down and put your entire bankroll down on one bet....come to think of it, not such a bad idea... yuk yuk
 
johno Posted: 09-Aug-08 05:37
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Sometimes you don't have the option of raising or lowering bets by fractional amount.

"put your entire bankroll down on one bet"
only if it was a one horse race

This bloody pre-progresson, I've yet to determine my own balalnce point.

When you win 1 hand out of 10, you are thankful for using a 10 pre-stage, when you win next to nothing for a few shoes, it does your head in... So you abandon it and your bets climb, what would hqve been 3u bets are now 34u bets. In fact I've decided if I'm not going implement the pre-stage then I'm also not going to use the accompaning bet selection, because this BS doesn't work without the pre-stage.

If I'm making 34u bets and beyond, I might as well just play FTL and trying to 2nd guess the chops endings, or switch to betting one side only after a series of chops.

 
Junket King Posted: 09-Aug-08 15:44
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Sorry for jumping in late here but was out of town for a few days doi
ng a bitch of an install.

First, the Star has rules. The plan works if you are well-funded (es
pecially true if your bet selection stinks).

Importantly, the 4-step PRE-progression is where one expects to garne
r the most wins assuming back-to-back wins and PARLAYING a win.

The second, and equally important part, is that once in the Fibo sect
ion one does not move - either up or down - until one has had 2 consec
utive wins or losses. Some folks change that to if they were to break
even at some point they would restart and get off the top-end bet. C
an't fault them for that. As Perry B is fond of saying: "control your
losses and the wins will take care of themselves."

Playing Johno's shoe data of:
bbbbb
p
b
ppp
b
pp
b
p
b
ppppp
bbb
p
bbb
ppp
bb
p
b
p
b
p
b
p
b
pp
b
p
b
p
b
p
b
p
b
p
b
pp
b
and just betting Player (my only bet) and using the proper Star I mad
e 25 units. Betting Banker that plan won 9 units before commission. P
laying FTL with the Star turned out to be a huge devastating loss of m
ega proportions.

And here I thought I was going to see a parlay progression extended s
uch as 1-1-1-2-3-[4]-7... (4 is the break-even point).






[Edited by Junket King on 09-Aug-08 16:45]
 

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