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Topic: I am excited, but how SIGNIFICANT is this? |
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sherminator |
Posted: 01-Jul-10 10:01 |
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Without jumping from the rooftops shouting eureka, I have tested something that I thought about a while ago and want to share my results.
Just to let you all know, I came up with the idea first and then tested. I did not go looking through results for a strong bias which just gives you an illusion of a winning strategy.
It is a dozens bet which I have tested on a single 0 wheel, there is no reason why the results should be any different on a double 00 wheel, except for the extra house edge.
Anyway, all done flat betting.
In over 5000 hand tested spins, I am getting a ratio of 3/1 winners.
Where obviously I should only be hitting 2/1.
How many spins do I need to test over where it becomes significant if I maintain the 3/1 ratio.
I have messed about with methods for 25 years but this idea just popped into my head and it made a lot of sense and so I decided to test it. I am pleased I did. I know I need to do more testing but this seems like a very high strike rate indeed. |
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sherminator |
Posted: 01-Jul-10 10:37 |
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Don't get me wrong, I am not claiming to have the H.G. or anything like that, but my results seem well out of what could be considered normal deviation. (Then again, maybe not, but I hope someone can correct me on that)
What I am wondering is that if this IS as good the early results are showing, then I can't imagine why nobody would have ever thought of this before and that is what leads me to think that I have a made a mistake somewhere but I certainly can't see where I have gone wrong.
I hand tested it and checked it all over three times earlier today before posting this. |
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Nathan Detroit |
Posted: 01-Jul-10 15:05 |
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Sherminator,
Now is the time to take this to a B & M casino. At the General Board LOW table minimums are presently being discussed which might come handy for that purpose.
What are the lowest minimums in your gaming jurisdiction?
Nathan Detroit
HAPPY WINNINGS!!!
[Edited by Nathan Detroit on 01-Jul-10 15:07] |
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COLIN |
Posted: 01-Jul-10 15:26 |
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Sherminator may i ask will you be posting your system or will it be up for sale soon .Colin |
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sherminator |
Posted: 01-Jul-10 15:28 |
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Hello Nathan,
I was planning a trip tomorrow afternoon. Thinking about your question gave me an idea, I would be better starting from the table minimum, because if the method enjoys the same ratio of wins to losses that I am getting in testing, it won't be very long before I can up the ante a bit and start playing about with my winnings.
Just for information purposes, the minimum bet on a dozen in the casinos I frequent are mostly a £1.00 (I go to some real high class places, lol) I think with the recession biting hard, most of the casinos have lowered the stakes for most of the games here, especially roulette and blackjack. I had not seen a £1.00 minimum blackjack table for ages before I visited my local casino a few weeks back. |
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sherminator |
Posted: 01-Jul-10 15:36 |
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Hello Colin,
I won't post it on the forum and I will not be selling it.
On saying that, if it works in real life play as well as it has in testing which I have to say is probably doubtful going on all my previous experiences with systems, then once I have made some cash from it, I will give it away to people who are discreet and who I trust. I have your email Colin and I will keep you posted. Hope you are keeping well. |
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laurance |
Posted: 01-Jul-10 15:56 |
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@Sherminator,
Out of the 5,000 spins, how many bets did you actually place? In other words, do you wait for a specific sequence and then place a bet, or do you bet every spin.
Let me just clarify what I think you are saying:
Your system involves betting two of the dozens, therefore the expectation is to win two of your bets for every loss (2/1).
But, your system is winning at a rate of three wins for every loss (3/1), hence a 75% hit rate on a bet that should only hit 66% of the time.
Is that correct?
[Edited by laurance on 01-Jul-10 15:58] |
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sherminator |
Posted: 01-Jul-10 16:21 |
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Sorry Laurance, I have actually explained it wrong.
I have placed 5000 seperate bets in over 10k spins.
All these bets are on single dozens.
I am hitting a 3/1 ratio. (75%)
So I should be hitting 33% and not the 2/1 ratio like I said (my mistake)
Now this sounds way too good to be true, but it is the results from my testing.
My question is, is it possible to have a blip this large where the deviation can be so high?
To me it seems very unlikely and I have certainly never experienced anything like it before in all my testing.
Anyway, I am going to more testing and I am going to unleash this on the casino tomorrow and see what happens. |
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Nathan Detroit |
Posted: 01-Jul-10 16:27 |
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Sherminator,
I presume you are talking about one selective dozenonly instead f the usual 2 dozens at one coup.
The dozens can be very tricky . For instance at the beginning of June I was in Atlantic City and played selective 2 dozens according to the action within a sector.
I won 8 out of 16 spins incl. 1 push but the last 3 spins, 3 in a row it`s time to go, were what produced a losing session.( 0/00 wheel.)
So today I chose 1 dozen only with a mild Fibonacci 5-8-13 ( due to a realistic $ 5 table min. Worked great in the testing mode.
At a $ 1 table min it could be 1-3-5.
Nathan Detroit
HAPPY WINNINGS!!!
P.S.The 16 results :
21 W
1 L
17 W
21 W
28 W
23 L
34 L
32 W
00 L
21 W
19 W
17 W
5 L
12 L
18 push ( due to betting $5 on 1-18 and $5 on last dozen)
8 L
[Edited by Nathan Detroit on 01-Jul-10 16:28] |
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sherminator |
Posted: 01-Jul-10 16:50 |
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Nathan,
The more I think about playing dozens, the more sense it makes because you are getting 2/1 payout and bearing in mind the wheel has no memory, it can really work in your favour if you can stick to a plan.
Going through my testing results, I can't really see any other better option at the moment than just flat betting when I am placing a bet.
Thank you for your suggestions, I also spent some time this afternoon going through the archives and reading some of "dozenbettors" posts. I know he was also a keen dozens player.
I should have also said but did not (my mind is all over the place with these testing results that I have had) That the bet is a combination of dozens and columns, one spin I could be betting a dozen and a few spins later, I could be betting on a column. With them both paying out at 2/1, obviously they are the same type of bet. |
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Kelly |
Posted: 01-Jul-10 23:33 |
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A math boy would look for is a positive spin sample size of minimum 25.000 spins for a 12 number bet.
25.000 spins is the point where you, if you have a profit/positiv deviation of 3 Standard Deviations, breaks even with the zero losses. In other words, +1 after 25.000 spins would be very good unless the system is reverse optimized using these 25000 spins. In that case, you should pick another sample of 25.000 spins for the real test.
Thats flat bet, the sample needs to be somewhat bigger if a progression is used to get the same significans. |
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sherminator |
Posted: 02-Jul-10 08:42 |
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Thank you Kelly, 25k spins is going to be a lot of testing.
I could not wait for this afternoon and decided to travel to the casi
no and give this a try.
There are two casinos within about 5 minutes from each other where I
went. So I decided to play two mini sessions on two different wheels i
n each casino.
1st casino, Gala Casino.
session 1.
22 spins = 4 wins (+8) 6 losses (-6) total +2.
session 2.
25 spins = 7 wins (+14) 5 losses (-5) total +9.
total spins = 47. 11 wins/11 losses. Total win +11.
--------------------------------------------------------------
2nd casino, Grosvenor Casino.
session 1.
22 spins = 3 wins (+6) 1 loss (-1) total +5.
session 2.
17 spins = 7 wins (+14) 1 loss (-1) total +13.
total spins = 39. 10 wins/2 losses. Total win +18.
--------------------------------------------------------------
Grand Total
87 spins, 21 wins/13 losses. Total Win +29 units.
--------------------------------------------------------------
Nothing greatly statistically significant there, but at least it held
up in real life play which I was happy about. I am just as well doing
my testing in real life mode and getting paid for it if the strike ra
te holds up than testing at home.
There is another casino about 25 minutes in the opposite direction,
I may venture over there sometime tonight to test some more. This real
ly has me intrigued.
[Edited by sherminator on 02-Jul-10 09:42] |
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A Wolf |
Posted: 02-Jul-10 10:07 |
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Looks pretty damn good so far, good luck!
Wolf |
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sherminator |
Posted: 02-Jul-10 10:36 |
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Thanks Wolf,
That's the problem though, it looks too good. I am really going to be dissapointed if and when this all comes crashing down.
About 7-8 years ago, I did my very first hand test. I spent ages on it, must have being about 15k worth of spins, anyhow, it was really doing great and then it tanked, lol.
With that one, I was waiting for spin 35,36 and 37 of a 37 spin cycle and betting for some of the hot numbers to repeat (all gamblers fallacy stuff) I was probably covering more than half the board, but with this one, the thing that strikes me is that because I am just playing a dozen, I have no right to be hitting as high as what I am. Thinking about it, what I am claiming sounds more ridiculous than someone saying they get 72% on the even chances (only joking SPIKE) LOL. |
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sherminator |
Posted: 03-Jul-10 17:53 |
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This will be my last post on this thread because some of you probably think (and maybe rightly so) that I am taking the p. by going on about it and not willing to share it.
I played some more live sessions this morning and things went really well. I have hand tested another 750 placed bets between last night and today. The results are very consistent. I thought about a little tweak, after implimenting it in my testing from last night and this afternoon, it actually improved the winnings by 20%+. It gives me more bets and allows a more steady flow of winning runs. All great news considering I am flat betting.
I did not want to appear cocky and tried to play it down, on saying that I have to say if there is ever a winning mechanical method, I am surely looking at it in front of me. So why go on about it?
Because I would like to say that if you are looking for your own mechanical winning method, it is my honest opinion that you should be 100% looking at the dozens/columns and nowhere else! After 20+ years, I will swear here and now that anything else will never get you ahead and winning consistently. 1/1 bets are a lame duck. Progressions are a waste of time.
I tried to convert this method to even bets and it just wiped its feet. You would think the 1/1 bets are safer than the dozens/columns, trust me, they do not even compare. Right, I have said my piece, take it or leave it and yes it is just an opinion.
[Edited by sherminator on 03-Jul-10 17:55] |
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A Wolf |
Posted: 04-Jul-10 10:31 |
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"After 20+ years, I will swear here and now that anything else will never get you ahead and winning consistently"
You would be wrong about that!
"You would think the 1/1 bets are safer than the dozens/columns, trust me, they do not even compare. Right, I have said my piece, take it or leave"
Wrong again!
Good luck
Wolf |
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